The last thing most people think of when hearing about a geopolitical conflict is what it means for cruise lines. That is, unless you work in travel.

After Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, launched a surprise attack on Israel, the fight has quickly escalated. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since told Israelis they may be in for a long and trying war.

That means violence, loss and devastation for people directly and indirectly involved in those conflicts. It goes without saying how profoundly disheartening it is to not just hear about another war but of real people suffering.

In a travel-business sense, it also means that the cruise industry could face a long absence from another region in the world, just as it had regained its footing from the pandemic.

“The relatively good news for cruises is that the 2023 Mediterranean sailing season is mostly over,” said Truist Securities leisure analyst Patrick Scholes. Although he expects some guests will cancel their fall 2023 sailings in the region, “of greater concern is an extended conflict that could pressure bookings for the 2024 season.”

The cruise industry feels the ripple effects of many disasters, not the least of which was the pandemic. Aside from the obvious health concerns and lockdowns posed, entire countries were off-limits to cruising as they were slow to reopen, like Australia and Asia. Not to mention supply chain issues and struggles restarting cruise operations.

And cruise lines have — unfortunately — had practice moving their ships. Cruises to Israel have been discontinued during previous conflicts. Ships have rerouted from other eastern Mediterranean spots, such as Egypt, during times of unrest.

Another example is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has taken cruise lines out of St. Petersburg, Russia. It’s a place in the Baltic retired Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings chief Frank Del Rio described as “one of the crown jewels of the Scandinavian itineraries.” 

Not only does today’s conflict in Israel take that country off the table for the cruise sector for the near future, but further escalation could threaten to involve nearby countries and create an even larger no-sail zone, forcing cruise lines to find other places to sail their ships.  

Depending on the size of the conflict, it could also lead to an increase in fuel prices. The price of crude oil jumped Monday, although it’s too early to say what impact the conflict will have on prices long-term.

Of course, hurricanes also affect cruise lines. The difference between ferocious hurricanes and tropical storms is knowing that the interruption to the cruise and travel industries is usually (and hopefully) temporary. Geopolitical conflicts could last years.

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